Chris Coleman, ERCOT Senior Meteorologist
Updated Thursday, August 22
General Discussion: Continued above normal heat through at least next Monday. Sunday and Monday look especially hot, with widespread 100+ degree highs across most of ERCOT. 105-110 for highs in Far West Texas are possible. Beginning on Tuesday, the weather models begin to vary significantly. One suggests temperatures cool a bit -- closer to normal (more low to mid 90s). Another model suggests the heat from Monday carries through Thursday, backing off very little if at all. For now, that's the approach to take -- continued quite hot through the middle of next week -- although it's likely Far West Texas does cool more than the rest of the state. After that, the weather models are in much more agreement. There's a genuine potential for significant cooling throughout ERCOT late next week, heading into Labor Day weekend (as well as widespread rain potential). Stay tuned, as that's still over a week out, so there's time for this to change.
Today: Still quite hot. Maybe one degree less than yesterday, on average, but not really any significant changes from yesterday. Upper 90s to 100 or so is again the forecast for this afternoon for most locations. Although disorganized, the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is very active with showers and thunderstorms -- and will remain so through Saturday before shifting east. Coast zone and South zone (mostly near the Coast) will have scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Likely a bit more coverage than yesterday. Houston with another rain chance and more likely than not that at least parts of the metro will see a thunderstorm or two, especially from late-morning through mid-afternoon. Not quite as widespread as Tuesday, however. A couple stray cells will possibly push into eastern portions of the South Central zone late-afternoon.
Tomorrow: Showers and thunderstorms will again be active along the Gulf Coast. Rain may be more widespread in Houston on Friday. Also likely to see more thunderstorms in West Texas on Friday. And with very active weather expected over Oklahoma, some of those could move into North Texas late-Friday. Central Texas and South Texas (away from the Coast) has the lowest rain chances (mostly dry, maybe a stray shower or two). Similar temperatures to today to maybe a degree or so less hot. Where rain does impact a location (i.e. Houston), temperatures could get knocked down even more.