Seasonal forecasts show sufficient generation for fall and winter
AUSTIN, TX, Sept. 7, 2017 – The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) anticipates there will be sufficient installed generating capacity available to serve systemwide forecasted peak demand this fall and winter.
ERCOT today released its final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) report for the upcoming fall season (October – November 2017) and its preliminary assessment for the winter season (December 2017 – February 2018).
"We studied multiple scenarios that could impact the availability of generation resources on the ERCOT system and do not currently anticipate any systemwide issues," said Manager of Resource Adequacy Pete Warnken. "Even in the most extreme scenarios considered, there were ample operating reserves."
The SARA report is based on an assessment of generation availability and expected peak demand conditions at the time it was prepared. Based on currently available information, ERCOT does not expect Hurricane Harvey impacts to affect generation resource availability this fall and winter.
The assessment takes into account expected generation outages that typically occur during fall for routine maintenance, as well as a range of generation outage scenarios and weather conditions that could affect seasonal demand.
The fall report includes a 56,097 MW fall peak demand forecast, which is unchanged from the preliminary fall forecast released in May 2017. The forecast is based on normal weather conditions during peak periods for the past 14 years, from 2002 through 2015.
Nearly 86,000 MW of total generation resource capacity is expected to be available for peak demand. ERCOT will enter the fall season with approximately 3,000 MW of new generation capacity that has been added since the preliminary fall SARA report was released in May. This includes two gas-fired combined-cycle units totaling 2,200 MW.
Additional planned resources for the fall season include more than 1,500 MW of new capacity. That includes 837 MW of new wind and solar resources that are expected to contribute 374 MW to the fall peak.
Based on expected winter peak weather conditions, the preliminary SARA report for winter 2017-18 anticipates a seasonal peak of more than 61,000 MW, which would surpass the all-time winter peak record of 59,650 MW set on Jan. 6, 2017, between 6 and 7 p.m.
ERCOT currently expects to have sufficient generation available to meet systemwide demand this winter. The final winter SARA report will be released in early November.