This page contains information related to ERCOT’s Mid-Term Load Forecast (MTLF) and Long-Term Load Forecast (LTLF).
Long Term Load Forecast
The Long-Term Load forecast is an hourly forecast for the next 10 years. It is based on forecasted economic data and historical weather from 2008– 2022.
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Contains ERCOT summer peak demand forecast scenarios for 2024 – 2033. These scenarios are based on using historical weather years in the forecast model. Includes ERCOT net summer peak forecast and the 90th percentile forecast (denoted as P90).
The Mid-Term Load forecast (MTLF) is an hourly forecast for the next 168 hours based on current weather forecast parameters within each Weather Zone. The MTLF Monthly Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) chart below contains average MAPE values for the 3 hour ahead, 6 hour ahead, and day ahead forecast horizons for each calendar month. The MTLF Monthly Backcast chart contains the average model error for each calendar month. Note that a backcast is created by using the current MTLF forecast models with actual weather data and calendar variables (day-of-week, holiday) as input. The backcasted values are then compared to the actual load values to arrive at model error.
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