Supplemental Data for COVID-19 Scenario

This section includes information on ERCOT's COVID-19 alternative scenario that was released in a supplemental tab in the May 2020 Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report. The load forecasts are based on information provided by Moody’s Analytics in the April economic forecast. The following Excel files contain demand and energy data using adjusted peak load forecasts that correlate with Moody’s economic forecast.

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COVID-19 Load Forecast Scenarios

90th Percentile Summer Non-Coincident Peak by Weather Zone

Contains the 90th percentile weather zone summer peak demand forecasts for 2020–2024, which use the updated Moody’s base COVID-19 scenario (P90 forecast). Also includes a comparison to the 2020 Long-Term Load Forecast.

May 19, 2020 - xlsx - 11.1 KB

ERCOT Peak Demand Scenarios

Contains ERCOT summer peak demand forecast scenarios for 2020–2024, which use the updated Moody’s base COVID-19 scenario. These scenarios use historical weather years in the forecast model. Also includes ERCOT’s summer peak demand forecast (denoted as P50) and the 90th percentile forecast (denoted as P90). Includes a comparison to the 2020 Long-Term Load Forecast.

May 19, 2020 - xlsx - 12.9 KB

Weather Zone Non-Coincident Peak Forecast

Contains weather zone non-coincident summer peak demand forecasts for 2020–2024, which use the updated Moody’s base COVID-19 scenario (P50 forecast). Also includes a comparison to the 2020 Long-Term Load Forecast.

May 19, 2020 - xlsx - 10.9 KB

ERCOT Monthly Peak Demand and Energy Forecast

Contains ERCOT monthly peak demand and energy values based on the updated Moody’s base COVID-19 scenario.

May 19, 2020 - xlsx - 13.6 KB

Weather Zone Coincident Peak Forecast

Contains weather zone coincident summer peak demand forecasts for 2020–2024, which use the updated Moody’s base COVID-19 scenario (P50 forecast). Also includes a comparison to the 2020 Long-Term Load Forecast.

May 19, 2020 - xlsx - 11.4 KB