Resource Adequacy 2015

The Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUC) and ERCOT Board have been evaluating possible approaches to encourage new generation development within the ERCOT region to maintain adequate capacity reserves. This section includes reports and presentations associated with this investigative effort, as well as materials with the PUC's review of the reliability standard for the ERCOT region.

Brattle ERCOT Resource Adequacy Review_6-1-2012

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 2.2 MB

ERCOT Analysis of the Interim Solution B

Analysis of proposal discussed at Jan. 24, 2013, PUC workshop

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 187.8 KB

Estimating the Value of Lost Load

Literature Review and Macroeconomic Analysis

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 1.2 MB

Impact Analysis Estimating Cost and Timeline to Implement ORDC B

Report to PUC on costs to implement operating response demand curve B+ proposal

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 234.6 KB

Impact Assessment of Real-Time Energy and Ancillary Services Coo

Report to PUC on costs to implement real-time energy and ancillary services cooptimization

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 894.5 KB

Newell Oct25 PUCT Workshop_Composite Options_10-19-2012

The Brattle Group report on 'composite' options for resource adequacy in ERCOT

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 745.4 KB

Reserve Margin Analysis For the PUC

Feb 3, 2015 - pdf - 1.3 MB

White Paper - Back Cast of Interim Solution B+

Approximate pricing outcomes and estimates of Interim Solution B+ in 2011 and 2012 market conditions

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 702 KB

Planning Reserve Margin Analysis

The ERCOT Board of Directors has established a minimum target reserve margin equal to 13.75 percent of peak electricity demand to serve electric needs in the case of very high demand or unexpectedly high levels of generation plant outages. This section consists of reports that describe the methodology and results of studies that help the ERCOT Board determine the appropriate target reserve margin.

2013 ERCOT Load Forecast Review with Itron 012714

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 2 MB

ERCOT Loss of Load Study-2013

Assumptions and Methodology

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 557.7 KB

ERCOT Loss of Load Study-2013-PartII

Study Results

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 2.5 MB

Itron ERCOT Growth Index Evaluation

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 4.1 MB

Itron Evaluation of ERCOT's Forecasting Methodology

In December 2013, ERCOT engaged Itron to evaluate a new long-term forecasting framework. The framework includes a neural network (NN) model for each ERCOT zone (Zone) estimated over multiple historic periods and forecasted with a range of historic weath

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 1.1 MB

Itron Premise Presentation 012014-2

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 5.5 MB

Preliminary Load Forecast 012014

Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 23 KB

Previous Assessments

View previous CDR and SARA reports.

Fall 2014 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 721.3 KB

Fall 2014 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment

Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 215 KB

Spring 2014 Final Seasonal Assessment

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 164.2 KB

Spring 2014 Final Seasonal Assessment

Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 194.5 KB

Spring 2014 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 169 KB

Spring 2014 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment

Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 193.5 KB

Summer 2014 Final Seasonal Assessment

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 203.3 KB

Summer 2014 Final Seasonal Assessment

Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 215.5 KB

Summer 2014 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 176.2 KB

Summer 2014 Preliminary Seasonal Assessment

Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 196 KB

Winter 2013-2014 Final Seasonal Assessment

Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 169.5 KB

Winter 2013-2014 Final Seasonal Assessment

Jan 6, 2015 - pdf - 165.5 KB

Resource Adequacy Assessments

Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report

Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy

Wind and Solar

Wind and solar profiles for use in ERCOT planning studies, as well as files showing the derivation of wind and solar peak capacity percentages using approved CDR methodologies.

CDR Peak Ave Wind Capacity Percentage, 11/12/2015

Nov 20, 2015 - xls - 153 KB

CDR Peak Ave Wind Capacity Percentages, 2014-15 Winter Update

Apr 28, 2015 - xls - 137.5 KB

CDR Peak Average Wind Capacity Percentages

Data used to determine Peak Average Wind Capacity Calculations Oct. 22, 2014

Jan 6, 2015 - xls - 132.5 KB

Concentrating Solar Data Sets

Jan 6, 2015 - zip - 6.5 MB

Existing sites wind shapes 120926 all years

Jan 6, 2015 - zip - 102.1 MB

Hypothetical sites wind shapes 120926