Resource Adequacy 2023
ERCOT counts on an adequate supply of electric generation to meet demand and maintain capacity reserves to help support grid reliability if shortfalls occur.
This section includes access to ERCOT market studies and analysis materials related to resource adequacy as well as ERCOT short- and long-term forecast reports on generation supply and demand.
Reports produced prior to 2012 are located in the yearly archive section of Reports and Presentations
All other archives are located at the bottom of the page.
Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy (MORA)
The MORA report serves as an early indicator of the hour-by-hour risk that ERCOT may need to issue an Energy Emergency Alert or call for controlled outages to maintain grid reliability for the reporting month. The MORA report uses probability-based modeling to determine the likelihood that ERCOT will have insufficient operating reserves during each monthly peak electric demand period. The reports also include scenarios to show demand and resource availability for selected hours based on expected grid conditions.
The MORA report is issued on the first business day of each month and reflects the risk analysis for two months in the future (e.g., the November MORA is for the January reporting month.) The MORA replaces the Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy Report (SARA).
Monthly Generator Interconnection Status Report
View the latest public interconnection information on planned generation resources in the ERCOT Region.
Resource Capacity Trend Charts Resource Capacity Trend Charts
Resource Adequacy Assessments Resource Adequacy Assessments
Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA)
The SARA report serves as an early indicator of the risk that ERCOT may need to call an Energy Emergency Alert Level 1 (EEA1) due to having insufficient operating reserves during seasonal peak electric demand periods. It uses a scenario approach to illustrate a range of resource adequacy outcomes based on extreme system conditions. The SARA report relies on projected resource capabilities and peak demand forecasts similar to the CDR report. However, unlike the CDR, it incorporates generator outage trends to determine the expected amount of resource capacity available for operating reserves.
Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) Report Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) Report
Planning Reserve Margin Analysis
This section consists of documents and data files pertaining to the Economically Optimum and Market Equilibrium Reserve Margin (EORM/MERM) reporting initiative, which was authorized by the Public Utility Commission of Texas as part of Project Number 42302, "Review of the Reliability Standard in the ERCOT Region." The current minimum target reserve margin established by the ERCOT Board of Directors is 13.75 percent of peak electricity demand to serve electric needs in the case of unexpectedly high demand or levels of generation plant outages.
Drought Risk
Periodic drought risk reports based on ERCOT's risk monitoring tool that screens for potential drought-related impacts to generation resources. The tool predicts whether water supplies used by generation resources in the ERCOT Region are at risk of reaching levels requiring closer monitoring over the next 6 to 18 months, based on the most recent reservoir and lake levels from the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and historical trends in water usage. See "Related Documents" under the 2019 Resource Adequacy webpage for documentation of the tool methodology and other related reports.
Drought Risk Analysis Reports Drought Risk Analysis Reports
Related Documents Related Documents
Wind and Solar
Wind and solar profiles for use in ERCOT planning studies, as well as files showing the derivation of summer/winter wind and solar peak average capacity percentages using approved CDR methodologies. Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) reports and materials are also posted here.